Foley, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS64 KMOB 172329
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A lobe of shortwave energy swept around the base of a closed
upper low passing north of the Southeast earlier today, with a
weak cold front having moved south over the Southeast in response.
Looking at dewpoints, the boundary either lies north of I-20, or
looking at surface temperatures, a boundary lies just north of
Highway 84. The current satellite and radar loops show a developed
storm near Jackson, MS at 3pm. Will need to monitor later this
afternoon into the evening hours, depending on which boundary the
storms focus on. Guidance is advertising MLCapes rebounding into
the 2000-2500J/kg range along and north of Highway 84, with DCapes
in the 800-1100J/kg range and EBWD shear to around 40kts over the
same area. Enough for strong to marginally severe storms, with
strong winds the primary threat. Even with the upper ridge
weakening over the forecast area and nearby this afternoon, mid
level lapse rates remain low enough to limit hail development.
Model soundings show a generally linear profile, with little
directional shear, so am not expecting any organized rotating
storms. With storm movement in a generally easterly direction,
overrunning of any surface boundary is generally not expected, but
if a local surge from a storm moves a portion of the southern
boundary south enough, local water issues become a possibility,
albeit small one. Will need to monitor the late afternoon and
early evening hours for the rowdy storms. For Sunday, guidance is
advertising pretty much the same severe parameters, but with a
lack of upper initiator. The beginning of the re-building of an
upper ridge over the Southeast will help to deflect any shortwave
energy northward. For the forecast area, this places any
development to areas along the northern border of the forecast
area and north.

Upper level high pressure remains in control through the Near
Term, with temperatures remaining well above seasonal norms. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected this
afternoon and again Sunday, with mid 80s along the coast. Low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s inland from the coast,
mid to upper 70s along the coast. Heat Indices are still expected
to top out in the 89-103 degree range this afternoon, with 95-100
expected Sunday.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into the coming week.
/16

An upper trof progresses across the central states and into the
northeast states Monday into Wednesday, after which the upper trof
amplifies to encompass much of the eastern states before slowly
beginning to move off into the western Atlantic on Saturday. A
surface low associated with the upper trof is expected to bring a
cold front through the forecast area on Wednesday. Dry conditions
are expected for the area through Tuesday, with the exception of a
small chance of rain for a portion of Choctaw county Tuesday
afternoon. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Tuesday night
over interior areas, then have stayed with chance pops areawide
for Wednesday as the front approaches and then moves through the
area. Progressively drier and cooler air flows into the region
through Thursday night in the wake of the front, then deep layer
moisture begins to improve on Saturday. Dry conditions are
expected for the forecast area Thursday and Friday, and continue
for Saturday as well as while deep layer moisture will be
improving by that point, this does not look sufficient to support
precipitation. Highs on Monday and Tuesday range from the lower
90s inland to the mid 80s at the immediate coast, then trend
cooler into Thursday to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the upper 60s to
mid 70s then trend cooler by Thursday night to range from the
lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Temperatures
then moderate during the remainder of the period, with lows Friday
night ranging from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the
coast, and highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s. A
low risk of rip currents on Monday become a moderate risk for
Tuesday and Wednesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR flight category prevails for most of the area through this
evening before some MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings/visibility
become possible in spots overnight tonight associated with patchy
fog. Any fog quickly dissipates after daybreak with a return to
VFR flight category. A couple strong to severe storms also
continue this evening, mainly over interior south-central AL which
could reduce flight category to IFR/LIFR or below at times. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the
forecast. Outside of any thunderstorms, no issues are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  88  71  88  73  88  73  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  30
Pensacola   74  85  73  86  75  86  77  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  30
Destin      74  85  74  86  76  86  78  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  30
Evergreen   69  93  67  93  69  92  70  89 /  20  10   0   0   0   0  20  40
Waynesboro  69  92  68  92  71  92  69  87 /  20  10   0   0   0  10  30  30
Camden      69  91  68  91  69  92  70  86 /  30  20   0   0   0  10  30  30
Crestview   69  91  67  91  68  90  72  89 /   0  10   0   0   0   0  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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